Air Force general predict war China, Taiwan, Xi Jinping, Hong Kong, One China, Taiwan, US
Image courtesy of NBC News

Air Force general predicts war against China in 2025, adding fuel to the rising tension between China and Taiwan, but is the U.S. memo true and factual?

Air Force General’s Prediction

According to NBC News, a four-star Air Force general sent a memo on Friday to the officers he commands. The memo predicts the U.S. will be at war with China in two years over Taiwan. Therefore, they should prepare by firing a clip at a target and aiming for the head.

  • In the memo, General Mike Minihan, head of Air Mobility Command, said, “I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me we will fight in 2025.” The general further reasons that both Taiwan and the U.S.’s presidential election in 2024 will create distractions, providing an opportunity for China.


Memo Guides to Prepare for Defense

General Minihan explains his goals for preparing the memo. It includes building “a fortified, ready, integrated, and agile Joint Force Maneuver Team ready to fight and win inside the first island chain.”

  • The signed memo addressing all air wing commanders in AMC and other Air Force operational commanders gives them a timeline for defense preparations. The general orders them to report all major efforts done during preparations against China to Minihan by February 28.

  • In March he directs all personnel to consider their personal affairs and visit their servicing base legal office if necessary. Minihan also urges them to accept some risks in training. He writes, “If you are comfortable in your approach to training, then you are not taking enough risk.”
  • Furthermore, he points out a capability of the U.S. regarding conflict with China — commercial drone swarms. He directs the KC-135 units to prepare for delivering 100 off-the-shelf sizes and type UAVs from a single aircraft.

Defence Department’s Response

An AMC spokesperson confirms that the memo is real. He explains, General Minihan‘s order builds on last year’s foundational efforts by Air Mobility Command to prepare the Mobility Air Forces for future conflicts.

  • Following the release of the memo, a defense department official denied the comment’s alignment with the department’s view on China. However, the Defense Department press secretary Patrick Ryder stated that the National Defense Strategy certains China’s pacing challenge for the Department of Defense. Therefore, their focus remains on working alongside allies to preserve a peaceful, free, and open Indo-Pacific.
  • Back in March 2021, Philip Davidson, who was commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, told a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing that Taiwan is one of China’s ambitions.
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U.S. and The China-Taiwan Tension

China and Taiwan have been facing border tension for a long time now. President Xi Jinping is showing China’s desire to create One China by re-including its colonies in the country. This was triggered following the protests in Hong Kong and is also affecting Taiwan.

  • However, Taiwan’s connections with China are in muddy water. While China considers it a part of itself through One-China Policy, many Taiwan mainlanders consider it an independent country. Therefore, China’s attempts to reclaim Taiwan are seen as an attempt at imperialism.

  • The U.S. is taking Taiwan’s side on the matter by showing its intentions of joining Taiwan in the war against China in 2025 if an invasion occurs. However, many consider U.S. involvement as a fuel that ignites more border tension between the two countries.
  • According to NBC News, when asked earlier this month whether a Chinese invasion of Taiwan was imminent, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said, “What we’re seeing recently, is provocative behavior of China’s forces to re-establish a new normal. However, whether or not that means that an invasion is imminent is doubtful,”
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Will there be a war in 2025 as per the memo?

The predictions of invasion and war solely based on the memo are hard. While the memo itself is true, its contents are merely a prediction backed by recent tensions. In reality, how the attempts of China, the defense of Taiwan, and the involvement of the U.S. manifest in the future is unpredictable.

According to you, what effects U.S. statements and involvement can have on building border tension between China and Taiwan? Let us know in the comments below and follow Spiel Times for more latest updates about current events, entertainment, gaming, and sports.

Kairavi Pandya is a Senior Writer at Spiel Times. She has a fascination with cinema, multi-generational literature, and old-school Kpop. In her spare time, she likes to learn choreographies and catch up with healing K-dramas. She is also pursuing her undergrad degree.